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Getting a bet down on the Super Bowl is a tradition as old as the Super Bowl itself, no matter what the NFL would have anyone believe. And it will be no different when the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Bucs meet on the field this Sunday in Tampa's home stadium.

As far as the poker world goes, there's certainly no better resource to tap into for tips this season than Mark Gregorich and David 'ODB' Baker, who just took the betting contest world by storm in piling up more than $700K in winnings.

However, if poker fans hoped they'd get a slam dunk, set-it-and-forget-it ticket to print money from the pair, they're in for a quandary: each selected an opposing side when asked by PokerNews to break down the game.

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So, as always, it's going to be up to you to take what you can from their views and try to divine the future as best you can. It goes without saying that everyone should line shop for the best numbers — OddsChecker US can assist you there — and bet responsibly.

Here's a look at how Baker and Gregorich see things going down on Sunday.

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Looking Back to November

As most NFL fans know, this game actually already took place earlier in the year. Same teams, same location as the Chiefs and Bucs met on Nov. 29 in Tampa with the Chiefs installed a -3 or -3.5 favorites depending on the book and the timing.

A dominant first half by the Chiefs offense resulted in a 20-7 lead. Star receiver Tyreek Hill in particular torched the Bucs to the tune of 13 catches on 15 targets for 269 yards and three TDs.

Unable to dig out of the hole, the Bucs ate a 27-24 loss when a late comeback attempt fell short.

Baker and Gregorich didn't play that one in any of their contests, and neither seemed to take much away from it as far as whether it portends anything for the rematch. Naturally, both circled the way the Bucs approached Hill as the main focus.

'That was an insane Tyreek Hill game, and although a literal repeat seems impossible, I'm not sure the Bucs will have an answer for him this time either,' Gregorich said.

Baker seemed more optimistic about the Bucs' chances of shoring that weakness up, particularly after presumptive Hill cover man Carlton Davis put together a strong run in the playoffs.

'The way Hill completely dismantled Carlton Davis was shocking,' Baker said. 'Davis has been a very good CB this year but there was a few game stretch he wasn't his normal self and this game fell in that window. I don't think you can stop Hill completely but I don't anticipate anything like happened in the first matchup this time around.'

How Do They Match Up This Time Around?

Whatever approach Tampa Bay takes to slowing Hill, Gregorich sees a pick-your-poison scenario developing. He called it a game of 'whack-a-mole' — any resources deployed in that fashion, even if they succeed, will simply open up too many opportunities for TE Travis Kelce and the rest of the offense.

It's clear Baker also has an enormous respect for the Kansas City offense. However, he did see a path to the Bucs defense, which has been among the league's best this year despite their pasting in November, doing the seemingly impossible and holding the Chiefs in check.

One matchup in particular has his eye: the one between the Chiefs offensive line, down to a patchwork unit of weaker starters and backups, and the impressive Bucs defensive front. He called it a 'massive mismatch.'

'Can Patrick Mahomes avoid the pressure with his feet or with quick hitting plays?' he wondered. 'You just don't stop KC, but can Tampa do enough to steal a few possessions? I tend to think they can stop Mahomes a few times thus giving them a chance in this one.'

On the other side of the ball, both men brought up the often overlooked Chiefs defense as a difference-making group. The unit has been sneaky solid for the second straight season after years of poor play, with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo seeming to have figured out a secret sauce that gets the most out of his players.

Baker called them the most impressive unit of Championship Weekend, with their demolishing of Buffalo's high-powered passing attack catching him by complete surprise.

While much has been made of the Tampa pass rush, Gregorich expect's KC's to have some success.

'This is one of main reasons I love KC in this game,' he said. 'Even if TB gets to Mahomes, he is mobile and improvises well. If KC gets to Tom Brady, they're just screwed.'

Baker wants to see Tampa run the ball to avoid leaving Brady in a situation where he's forced to make plays. While he still believes in Brady even at his advanced age, calling him 'the best to ever do it,' Baker said he's looking for Tampa Bay's strong offensive line and running game to be the difference maker against a vulnerable KC run defense.

Both poker players pointed at the coaching matchup as a potentially massive edge for the Chiefs. With an extra week to prepare, Gregorich expects the superior KC staff to have the team as prepared as possible. Coach Andy Reid's record after a bye is legendary, and he reached deep into his bag of tricks in last year's title game against San Francisco. He's a good bet to have something special cooked up again.

Baker acknowledged as much but added he expects Brady's veteran savvy to mitigate some of the Chiefs' advantage.

Do You Agree with Gregorich?

Props, Totals, and Final Picks

These days, one of the most popular ways to get down some action on the Super Bowl is via the prop market. Gamblers can fire off on the length of the national anthem to what color the winning coach's Gatorade bath will be and just about everything in between.

Baker shared a couple of prop leans. The first was overs on RB Leonard Fournette's production. He's been an effective player for the Bucs of late, rumbling for an impressive TD against the Packers and serving a useful role as a pass catcher.

'The great thing about Fournette props is there are multiple paths to victory,' Baker said. 'If Tampa gets up they will lean on Fournette, but if they get down they will need to pass and he should get plenty of snaps. Obviously, a healthy Ronald Jones is a concern, but I'm just enjoying the smaller numbers we need to hit.'

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Baker also expects both coaching staffs to get creative.

'I also have seen number of Chiefs players rushing the ball at 4.5 and Bucs at 3.5,' he said. 'I will take the over on both. Two weeks to prepare for these teams is an eternity and they both have multiple RBs and WRs that could see plays designed for them as well as the inevitable QB scrambles or sneaks.'

Neither Gregorich nor Baker had a strong opinion on the total. The monster number opened at 57 in many spots and quickly settled at 56 without much movement.

Some books have floated Bucs +3.5 but the consensus line is +3 at most shops, and that's where Gregorich and Baker were asked to make a selection.

'KC definitely seems to be peaking at the right time,' observed Gregorich. 'I think they are the best team in the NFL by a significant margin. And with an extra week to plan, KC tends to really kill it.'

While he allowed that Tampa is also playing great, he likes the Chiefs.

Baker went the other way, taking the Bucs outright.

'I'm predicting a seventh Super Bowl win for Tom 'GOAT' Brady and the Bucs, 27-24,' he said. 'It is hard to have any confidence going against Mahomes and Reid. I think the Tampa D is strong enough to keep Mahomes somewhat in check and I think Tampa can do enough to pull it out.

'I won't be having the kids college fund on this one. I will have a nice stake though, it is the Super Bowl!'

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SportsDavid 'ODB' BakerMark Gregorich
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Mark Gregorich

What’s a better way to gamble? Are you better off playing poker, or would you make more money betting on sports?

It’s an interesting question with a lot of factors. I once read in a book about gambling professionally that successful sports bettors make more money than any other kind of gambler, including poker players.

But that’s an over-simplification. Some people are better at playing poker than they’ll ever be at betting on football games.

The purpose of this post is to compare both types of gambling and draw some conclusions about which might be a better fit for you.

The Biggest Similarity

The biggest similarity between betting on sports and playing poker is that you can theoretically do so professionally. Everyone knows that a percentage of poker players make their living from the game. A lot of people also know that a percentage of sports bettors also make a living from their activities.

We have some statistics about the percentage of poker players who are actually profitable, and it’s a smaller number than you might think. Somewhere between 85% and 95% of all poker players lose money over time.

That makes the percentage of players who are true poker pros quite small indeed. We don’t have the same data for sports bettors, but my guess is that it’s a similar percentage, if not smaller.

In either case, the profitable poker player and the profitable sports bettor looks for inequities in the market. Then, he pounces on those inequities to get a mathematical advantage.

Another Big Similarity

The other big similarity is that, if you’re going to profit long-term from either activity, you need a bankroll big enough to withstand bad luck. Both poker and sports betting outcomes can be random. You’re not playing chess, here, and you need enough money to avoid going broke in the short run.

Any time you’re dealing with a mathematical advantage in gambling, it’s a long-term expectation that you’re dealing with. In the short run, anything can happen.

Think about it this way. The casinos have an advantage over the gamblers who show up there. But some gamblers come home having won a few hundred or even a few thousand dollars. This doesn’t hurt the casinos’ profits at all. They have plenty of losers who are covering your winnings.

But if the casino didn’t have enough money to stay in the game for the long run, it couldn’t stay profitable. The amount of bankroll you need for each type of gambling is similar.

If you’re playing poker, you should never buy in for more than 5% of your bankroll. This means that if you’re going to buy in at a table for $100, you should have at least $2000 in your total poker bankroll.

If you’re betting on sports, you should never wager more than 1% of your bankroll on a single game. If you’re really aggressive and confident, you might risk 2% of your bankroll on a single sports bet.

This means that if you want to bet $100 per game, you should have a bankroll of $10,000. And that bankroll is money you’ve set aside specifically to gamble with. It needs to be money you don’t need for any other purpose.

Both Types of Gambling Cross Borders

Until recently, this wasn’t true. For the most part, a pro poker player was limited to playing with his local buddies. He certainly wasn’t playing internationally on any kind of regular basis.

And if you’re betting on a football game, you’re usually dealing with a neighborhood bookie that you met in a bar somewhere.

But with the rise of the internet, you can now tap into a worldwide marketplace of competitors. Regardless of where you’re from, you can still find websites to play poker for real or bet real money on sporting events.

Those companies, unless you live in one of the tiny handful of US states which legalized online gambling, operate internationally by necessity.

If you’re going to play poker or bet on sports on the internet, you need to make sure you’re comfortable dealing with international customers and competitors.

Online Poker Is Dying as a Form of Professional Gambling

If you’re an average poker player, you can probably forget about making any money playing poker on the internet. Even if you’re good, with a tight aggressive approach, you’re facing all kinds of collusion and bots. Your opponents probably have more data about your poker playing tendencies than you do, and they know how to exploit those tendencies.

Online sports betting is tough, too, but for different reasons. Internet-based bookmakers charge a higher vigorish than most traditional sportsbooks. This makes it harder to win in the long run.

Think about the kind of win rate you need to have just to break even if you’re having to risk $120 to win $100, which is common online. Then, compare that with the $110 or $105 you’d have to risk playing in a traditional, brick and mortar sportsbook.

Either way, you can make a living with either type of gambling. With poker, you need to put in more hours sitting at the table grinding it out. In fact, depending on which game you play and at what limits, you’ll face a much lower variance with poker than you will with sports betting.

After all, when you’re playing poker, you’re making multiple bets every hour. Compare that to a sports bettor who’s making bigger bets but is limited to betting just once a day or even just once a week.

Another way to look at this difference is in terms of your probability of winning a bet. In poker, you can fold until you find yourself in a situation where you have a 65% to 80% probability of winning, then bet heavily when you’re in that situation.

You will rarely, if ever, find yourself placing a sports bet where you have that probability of winning. The best sports bettors in the world are thrilled with a win ratio of between 53% and 57%.

When you’re winning a lower percentage of bets, your variance increases, because you will unavoidably lose more bets over the long run.

What’s a Good Return on Investment?

Your return on investment is the amount you’ve won compared to the amount you’ve risked. The higher that percentage is, the better.

In poker, return on investment is usually used by tournament players to measure how well they’re doing. Realistically, the best poker players in the world are lucky to see a return on investment of 25% to 35%, which is an impressive number. (Compare that with the kind of ROI you’d see on a savings bond.)

In sports betting, your return on investment will almost surely be in the 5% to 15% range, and that’s if you’re one of the elite.

In other words, that’s the kind of ROI achieved only by the best sports bettors in the world.

Return on investment isn’t the only way to measure how successful you’ll be at a given gambling activity, but it’s good to track it and be aware of the difference.

Conclusion

Which is better to bet on? Poker or sports? This post doesn’t provide a definitive answer, because that answer varies too much from one person to another.

If you’re lousy at poker but good at sports betting, it’s obvious which kind of gambling you should do. The reverse holds true, too.

If you’re good at both, you should do both. Many professional poker players are also pro sports bettors. What about you? Which activity are you good at betting on?